Carbo is fall guy for Gainey's disappointing Habs

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03/10/2009 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - This year was supposed to be one of celebration for the Montreal Canadiens franchise. Instead, the Habs' 100th season has been one filled with disappointments, the latest coming in the form of a head coach firing.

Guy Carbonneau was relieved of his coaching duties on Monday with just 16 regular season games left for Montreal. It seems like a harsh move considering the Canadiens were the fifth seed in the East at the time of the firing, but Montreal has a tenuous hold on that spot at best, thanks to the conference's tight race for the playoffs.

Carbonneau's Canadiens were just one year removed from a first-place finish in the conference during the 2007-08 season before suffering a disappointing five-game series loss to Philadelphia in the second round. He was also last year's runner-up for the Jack Adams Trophy, which is given annually to the league's best coach.

General manager Bob Gainey, a friend and former teammate of Carbonneau's in Montreal, made the decision to change coaches and, not surprisingly, he chose himself to handle bench duties for the remainder of the season. This marks the second time in Gainey's nearly six years as Montreal GM that he has fired a coach and taken over on an interim basis.

The last time Gainey used this strategy was in the middle of the 2005-06 campaign when he fired Claude Julien. Interestingly enough, Julien, who is currently enjoying immense success as head coach of the Eastern Conference- leading Boston Bruins, was also replaced by another GM a year later when Devils front office whiz Lou Lamoriello fired him and became the interim head coach.

Gainey is just one of many general managers with too much power and not enough accountability. Certainly, he had cause for firing Carbonneau, but the main reasons for Montreal's struggles this year can be traced back to moves the GM made.

First and foremost, it was Gainey's idea to anoint Carey Price as his team's No. 1 goaltender at the not-yet-ripe age of 20 years old, when he traded the club's former top goaltender Cristobal Huet at the 2007-08 deadline. The Habs would have lost Huet to free agency after the season anyway, but the move had a whiff of arrogance since Montreal was the No. 1 seed in the East at the time of the trade and Huet had been a big reason for Montreal's success up to that point.

Price went on to struggle in his first NHL postseason, going 5-6 with a 2.78 GAA and .901 save percentage. The rookie goaltender appeared lost at times, specifically in the series against Philadelphia when he let up a handful of soft goals. Price's growing pains have continued into this season, and Montreal has increasingly turned to Jaroslav Halak as the starting goaltender.

Not to say that Price won't at some point be a great goaltender for Montreal, but Gainey certainly made a blunder in deciding the young netminder's time was now.

Another problem for the Habs this year has been the decreased production of Alex Kovalev, who had a career renaissance with an 84-point season a year ago only to have just 47 points through 64 games this year. Kovalev's lack of scoring became such an issue that Gainey decided to order his star player to stay home in Montreal while his team was out on the road playing the final two games of a road trip.

To say that this scenario was predictable would be an understatement, considering Kovalev's history of taking years off. Of course, the 2007-08 campaign happened to be the final year of the Russian winger's contract. After Gainey opted to sign Kovalev, who is now 36 years of age, to a three-year, $13.5 million deal.

To be fair to Gainey, allowing Kovalev to walk to another team would have been an extremely unpopular decision in Montreal, where the hockey-crazed fan base refers to Kovalev as L'Artiste (The Artist) due to his world-class stickhandling skills.

Still, Gainey's job is to make difficult decisions such as allowing a beloved player to test free agency if it is the best plan for a team's future.

This is still not enough to excuse Carbonneau for his erratic approach to coaching this season. The former Canadiens captain shuffled his lines so frequently that his players couldn't have helped but feel confused. Also, The constant reordering invariably caused some players to suffer a loss of confidence in their own play.

Essentially, what Gainey is out to prove is that the players he has accumulated in service of the Canadiens are better than Carbonneau has made them look this season. That is ultimately the best way Gainey can prove he still deserves to be the general manager of the most storied franchise in NHL history.

Gainey had a telling moment Monday at the press conference to announce the coaching change. He said, "I can't say there could be anybody who follows our team who hasn't had this [firing] in their mind at some point in the last month."

That's true, in a town where hockey is king, Carbonneau's demise was likely predicted by many folks. In the end, however, the decision was made by Gainey, and now that he's added the title of head coach to his resume once again, it's he who bears the burden of proof in making the case for his own job.

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Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?

I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.

There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.

Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.

For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.

A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.

The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.

Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.

So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.

Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.

“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.

Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.

“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.

It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.

Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.

The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.

“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.

“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”

Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.

The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.

“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”

Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?

“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”

Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.