Ice Box heads Belmont field of 12

Horseracing Betting Lines

06/02/2010 - Elmont, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kentucky Derby runner-up Ice Box has been installed as the 3-1 morning-line favorite for Saturday's running of the $1 million Belmont Stakes at Belmont Park.

Neither Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver nor Preakness champ Lookin At Lucky will race Saturday in the 142nd edition of the 1 1/2-mile Test of Champions, the first time since 2006 that the Belmont will be without both winners of the first two legs of the Triple Crown.

Preakness runner-up First Dude is the second choice at 7-2 and Withers Stakes champ Fly Down is third at 9-2.

Ice Box, trained by Nick Zito, will start from post six with Jose Lezcano in the saddle. Zito is also the trainer of Fly Down, who will be ridden by John Velazquez and will break from post five.

"Ice Box, we tried to duplicate the same training method as before the Derby," Zito said. "We sharpened him up before the Derby; we're doing the same thing before the Belmont and hoping it works. Fly Down had the same workout before the Dwyer [Stakes]. We put a lot of miles on them every morning, because it's in [their breeding] to go a distance of ground.

"Hopefully, they'll have that firepower in the end. It's not an exact science, as you can see. Those workouts, regardless of whatever, it's not how you get the horses to go a mile and a half, a mile and a quarter, a mile and an eighth -- it's what they do every single day."

Owned by Robert LaPenta, Ice Box was the winner of the Florida Derby and was fifth in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, both at Gulfstream Park. The chestnut colt has career earnings of $906,534 with three wins in eight starts.

Fly Down, owned by Richard Pell, was sixth in the Louisiana Derby and is the winner of three of five lifetime starts for $182,070.

Zito has won the Belmont twice before, with Birdstone in 2004 and Da' Tara two years ago. Da' Tara was owned by LaPenta.

First Dude will start from post 11 with Ramon Dominguez in the saddle. Dale Romans trains for Donald Dizney.

This year the colt was fifth in the Florida Derby and third in the Blue Grass Stakes. He skipped the Kentucky Derby before his second-place finish to Lookin At Lucky in the Preakness.

In a seven-race career he has just one win, four seconds and a third for $352,160.

Here is the complete field for the Belmont Stakes in post position order: Dave in Dixie, 20-1, Calvin Borel; Spangled Star, 30-1, Garrett Gomez; Uptowncharlybrown, 10-1, Rajiv Maragh; Make Music for Me, 10-1, Joel Rosario; Fly Down, 9-2, John Velazquez; Ice Box, 3-1, Jose Lezcano; Drosselmeyer, 12-1, Mike Smith; Game On Dude, 10-1, Martin Garcia; Stately Victor, 15-1, Alan Garcia; Stay Put, 20-1, Jamie Theriot; First Dude, 7-2, Ramon Dominguez and Interactif, 12-1, Javier Castellano.

Post-time for the Belmont Stakes is scheduled for 6:27 p.m. (et). The latest weather forecast for the race calls for a slight chance of a thunderstorm and post-time temperature around 75.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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