Oosthuizen up by four at St. Andrews

Golf Betting Lines

07/17/2010 - St. Andrews, Scotland (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Louis Oosthuizen has never been in this position, but he sure seems comfortable atop the leaderboard in a major.

The South African, who held the second-round lead, carded a three-under 69 Saturday to complete three rounds of the British Open Championship in the lead at 15-under-par 201.

Oosthuizen claimed his first European Tour title earlier this year, but has never been near the top of the leaderboard in a major championship. The one time he had made the cut in a major before this, the 2008 PGA Championship, Oosthuizen finished in last place.

Paul Casey posted a five-under 67 on the Old Course at St. Andrews Saturday. He finished 54 holes in second at 11-under-par 205.

Martin Kaymer is three strokes further back at minus-eight after shooting a four-under 68 in round three.

Henrik Stenson (67), Alejandro Canizares (71) and Lee Westwood (71) share fourth place at seven-under-par 209.

Tiger Woods, a two-time British Open winner at St. Andrews, shot a one-over 73 and is tied for 18th at minus-three.

World No. 2 Phil Mickelson managed a two-under 70 to move into a share of 26th at two-under-par 214.

Defending champion Stewart Cink carded an even-par 71 and is tied for 38th at minus-one.

They are all chasing Oosthuizen, who was the 54-hole leader twice this year on the European Tour.

Back in March, he led after 54 holes in back-to-back tournaments. In the first event, the Hassan II Golf Trophy, Rhys Davies flew past him for the victory.

However, Oosthuizen came back the next week with a final-round 67 at the Open de Andalucia to earn his first European Tour title.

Oosthuizen tripped to a three-putt bogey on the first and his five-stroke lead to start the round was suddenly three, as Stenson was making a charge.

The 27-year-old Oosthuizen settled in with five straight pars from the second. For the third time in three days, Oosthuizen birdied the par-four seventh. That moved his lead back to two after Casey birdied the seventh ahead of him to get within one.

Casey got to 11-under with a two-putt birdie on No. 9, then Oosthuizen followed with a two-putt birdie of his own to move to minus-13.

No one got any closer on the back nine than Casey did on the seventh and ninth. Oosthuizen parred the first six holes of the back nine to maintain his two-stroke lead.

Finally, on the 16th, Oosthuizen ran home a long birdie effort to push his lead to three.

Meanwhile, Casey failed to make a single birdie on the back nine. He closed with nine straight pars to get in at 11-under.

Oosthuizen drove the green at the last and two-putted for a closing birdie to extend his lead to four strokes.

The South African has won five times on his home tour, the Sunshine Tour, and was victorious for the first time earlier this year on the European Tour.

However, this is uncharted territory in the major championships for Oosthuizen.

NOTES: No one in the top-seven on the leaderboard has won a major and among the top 17, only two-time U.S. Open champion Retief Goosen has won a major championship...Goosen is tied for eighth at minus-five.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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