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12/22/2006 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Last year's NFC Champions and one of the favorites to win this season's AFC title get together Sunday in Seattle, as the Seahawks welcome the powerful San Diego Chargers to Qwest Field.
The AFC West champion Chargers currently lead the conference with a 12-2 record, and are in excellent position to secure homefield advantage throughout the playoffs.
San Diego has won eight straight contests, and with another one this week, the Chargers can set a franchise record for most victories in a season. The team previously had 12 wins during the 1961, 1979 and 2004 campaigns.
The most recent victory for the Bolts came last Sunday against the division- rival Kansas City Chiefs. San Diego running back LaDainian Tomlinson chased down more records with a two-touchdown performance.
L.T. now has the most points (186) in an NFL season, breaking the mark set by Green Bay's Paul Hornung in 1960, and his eighth straight game with multiple TDs broke the record established by Washington's John Riggins in 1983. Tomlinson also extended his lead for most TDs in a season to 31.
The Seahawks are way behind last year's regular-season pace, but still appear headed back to the playoffs.
After going 13-3 in 2005, Seattle can seal up its third straight NFC West title with either a win against the Chargers or a San Francisco loss to Arizona. The Seahawks could have won the division title themselves last Thursday, but were handed a 24-14 setback by the visiting 49ers.
SERIES HISTORY
The Seahawks have a 25-22 edge in their all-time series with the Chargers, and are 5-0 against San Diego since being swept in a home-and-home against their then-AFC West rival in 1999. Seattle won a 31-28 overtime decision when the teams last met, at Qualcomm Stadium in 2002, and claimed a 13-10 victory in overtime when the clubs last matched up in the Emerald City, in 2001.
Chargers head coach Marty Schottenheimer is 17-7 all-time against the Seahawks, including 16-4 while with the Chiefs from 1989 to 1998. Seattle's Mike Holmgren is 7-2 in his career against San Diego, but is just 1-3 head-to- head against Schottenheimer.
CHARGERS OFFENSE VS. SEAHAWKS DEFENSE
Tomlinson's record 31 touchdowns obviously lead the NFL, but he also recently took over first place in the push for the rushing title. With his 199 yards in last week's game against the Chiefs, Tomlinson took over Kansas City's own Larry Johnson for the most rushing yards in the NFL this season. L.T. now has 1,626 rushing yards, and holds a 110-yard edge over Johnson. Also, Tomlinson's two rushing TDs last week gave him 28 scores on the ground this season, breaking the record of 27 set by Seattle's Shaun Alexander a year ago. Tomlinson wasn't the only Charger having an easy day running the ball last week, because San Diego wound up with 265 yards rushing as a team. Michael Turner (415 yards, 2 TD) spelled Tomlinson nicely with 58 yards on seven carries, and fullback Lorenzo Neal (92 yards, 1 TD) added 10 yards on two attempts. Neal, along with Tomlinson of course, was selected as a starter for the Pro Bowl earlier this week. Overall this season, the Chargers are ranked third in the NFL in rushing offense with 160.1 yards per game.
Seattle has struggled to stop the run this season, and it figures to have its hands full with Tomlinson and the Chargers this week. One of the Seahawks' strengths last season was its rushing defense, and that skill figured greatly in the team's NFC championship season. This year, Seattle is 22nd in the NFL in run defense, surrendering 125.1 yards on the ground per game. The Seahawks were torched by San Francisco's runners last week, and wound up surrendering 228 rushing yards in the game. Frank Gore led the way for the 49ers with 144 yards on 29 carries. Starting defensive tackle Chartric Darby (33 tackles, 3 1/2 sacks) had three stops, and middle linebacker Lofa Tatupu (103 tackles, 1/2 sacks, 1 INT) led the team with nine tackles. Outside linebackers Julian Peterson (79 tackles, 9 sacks, 1 INT) and Leroy Hill (83 tackles, 2 sacks) also posted seven tackles apiece.
The Chargers made a controversial decision last season when they allowed quarterback Drew Brees to leave via free agency and handed his job to Philip Rivers, who had never started an NFL game heading into this season. It appears the decision has benefited Brees' new team, the New Orleans Saints, as well as his former club. Brees was named starter for the NFC Pro Bowl squad, and Rivers was selected as a reserve for the AFC. Rivers (2,976 yards, 18 TD, 8 INT) has certainly had his hand in some victories this season, but last week was not one of those occasions. The former North Carolina star had his worst outing of the season, completing just 8-of-23 passes for 97 yards and a pair of interceptions. That computes to a 12.4 passer rating, or nearly 80 points lower than his season average of 91.5. Wide receiver Vincent Jackson (19 catches, 328 yards, 3 TD) led the way with three catches for 66 yards, while starting Pro Bowl tight end Antonio Gates (65 catches, 805 yards, 8 TD) was held to just one reception for seven yards. For the season, the Chargers are 17th in the NFL with an average of 205.1 passing yards per game.
The Seahawks secondary was ripe for the picking last week, after San Francisco softened it with a potent rushing attack. 49ers quarterback Alex Smith was efficient rather than prolific, completing 14-of-25 passes for 162 yards with two TDs and no interceptions. Seattle has been getting consistent pressure on quarterbacks this season, but failed to post a single sack against the Niners. Free safety Ken Hamlin (89 tackles, 2 sacks, 3 INT) led the secondary with seven tackles last week, while strong safety Jordan Babineaux (52 tackles, 1 INT) and cornerback Kelly Herndon (65 tackles, 1 INT) each had five stops. The Seahawks are rated 16th in the NFL in passing defense this season, giving up an average of 207.6 yards per game.
SEAHAWKS OFFENSE VS. CHARGERS DEFENSE
Despite missing star running back Shaun Alexander for over a third of the season, the Seahawks are still averaging 117 rushing yards per game (16th - NFL). Part of the reason for that is the fact that Seattle has two stellar blockers in fullback Mack Strong and offensive tackle Walter Jones, both of whom were named as starters to this year's Pro Bowl. Alexander (664 yards, 4 TD) missed six games with a fractured bone in his left foot, but has been healthy since returning to game action on November 19. Last year's Associated Press NFL Most Valuable Player, Alexander is averaging just 3.4 yards a carry this season, and has rushed for over 100 yards in just one of his eight games, running for 201 yards against Green Bay on November 27. The former University of Alabama standout played last week against San Francisco, and ended with 73 yards and a touchdown on 23 carries. Alexander's backup, Maurice Morris (562 yards), added 14 yards on two attempts for Seattle.
The Chargers rush defense faced one of its toughest tests of the year last Sunday, and they passed with flying colors. Larry Johnson of the Chiefs came into the game as the NFL's leading rusher, but San Diego kept him in check with just 84 yards on 19 carries. Johnson, who ran for 132 yards against San Diego back in October, had rushed for 100 yards in four straight and seven of eight games before facing the Chargers last Sunday. Defensive tackle Jamal Williams (58 tackles, 2 sacks) is the main run-stopper for San Diego, and posted six tackles against the Chiefs. Williams was rewarded with a starting Pro Bowl nod earlier this week. Defensive end Igor Olshansky (25 tackles, 1.5 sacks) aided the run-stuffing with five stops. San Diego's is sixth in the NFL with 97.3 rushing yards per contest.
Seattle did not face one of the league's better passing defenses last week in the 49ers, but it still had a hard time moving the ball through the air. Quarterback Matt Hasselbeck threw for 220 yards and a touchdown, but was also picked off twice. Hasselbeck (2,037 yards, 17 TD, 13 INT) registered a below- average passer rating of 58.4, marking the third time in the last four weeks that the number has been under 60. Wideout D.J. Hackett (38 catches, 510 yards, 3 TD) led the team with eight catches for 87 yards, emerging to replace the loss of No. 1 receiver Darrell Jackson (63 catches, 956 yards, 10 TD), who sat out with a turf toe injury. Jackson is doubtful for this week's game. Tight end Jerramy Stevens (16 catches, 153 yards, 4 TD) also notched five catches for 64 yards and a TD. This season, Seattle is rated 20th in the NFL in passing offense with 191.5 yards per game.
San Diego has been the best team in the NFL at getting to the quarterback this season and, as a result, has frustrated many a passing offense. That was certainly the case last week, as the Chargers sacked KC quarterback Trent Green on six occasions and held him to a passer rating of 57.5. Overall, Green completed 23-of-41 passes for 185 yards with no TDs and one interception. The only surprising thing for San Diego, which leads the league with 54 sacks, was that Pro Bowl outside linebacker Shawne Merriman never dropped Green. Merriman (48 tackles, 12 1/2 sacks, 1 INT) finished with six tackles, and was held without a sack for the first time in four games. Randall Godfrey (57 tackles, 4 sacks) led the way with two sacks, and fellow inside linebacker Donnie Edwards (123 tackles, 2 sacks, 3 INT) posted six tackles, a sack and an interception. The Chargers are 11th in the NFL with 193.2 passing yards allowed per game.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
It's hard to pick against the Chargers at this point of the season, especially when homefield advantage is still up for grabs. Both of San Diego's losses (Baltimore and Kansas City) came on the road this year, so this is a potential upset. However, the noise of the home crowd will only succeed in making this game closer than expected until Tomlinson and the Chargers pull away in the end. Alexander may have something to prove now that L.T. surpassed a few of his touchdown records from last year, but that won't be enough to give Seattle the win.
Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: Chargers 31, Seahawks 24
<< Browns, Bucs, Play for Pride, Draft Position
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - In a year where it seems like every team has a shot at the
playoffs, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Cleveland Browns meet this Sunday in a
battle for draft positioning.
With two weeks left in the regular season, Tampa Bay an
<< Titans, Bills, Seek to Maintain Momentum
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Tennessee Titans didn't need rookie quarterback Vince
Young to lead them to their fifth straight win last week, because the defense
did all the work. The Titans are likely to require more of Young's services on
Sunday, wh
<< Playoffs Remain a Possibility for Rams
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The playoffs are still on the minds of the St. Louis Rams,
and they will try to do whatever it takes to stay afloat in the crowded waters
of the NFC postseason race.
St. Louis will shoot for its second straight win on Sund
<< Top three stay the same in FIFA Women's Rankings
Zurich, Switzerland (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Germany finishes the year as the
world's top women's team for the fourth year in a row in the FIFA World
Rankings which came out Friday.
The USA and Norway hold the second and third place
Saints Can Prolong Giants' Misery >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - In football terms anyway, the New York Giants can relate.
Not that their five-losses-in-six-weeks is comparable with the off-field
issues laid upon the New Orleans Saints last season, but the fallout of what's
gone on in g
Can Pats Break Jags' Home Stranglehold? >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New England Patriots will become the latest team to try
to solve the mystery of Alltel Stadium on Sunday, when they visit the
Jacksonville Jaguars in a game rife with postseason implications.
The Jaguars, who are tied
Chiefs Need Win Over Raiders, Holiday Miracle >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With a 7-7 record that includes a woeful 3-7 mark within
the AFC, the Kansas City Chiefs need a great deal of help to realize their
playoff dreams.
But first, the Chiefs must help themselves.
Herm Edwards' team travels
Colts Carry New-Found Momentum into Houston >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Indianapolis Colts will attempt to move one step closer
to securing a first-round playoff bye this Sunday at Reliant Stadium, where
the AFC powerhouses visit a Houston Texans team they have owned in recent
years.
The
Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?
I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.
Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.
There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.
Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.
For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.
A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.
The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.
Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.
So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.
Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.
“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.
Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.
“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.
It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.
Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.
The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.
“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.
“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”
Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.
The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.
“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”
Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?
“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.
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